The monsoon is expected to be below normal this year. Private weather agency- Skymet has released the monsoon forecast on Monday. This can affect the production of food grains in the country. Inflation can increase if production is less.
Skymet had predicted a below-normal monsoon in January as well and has now retained the same outlook. Farmers in the country usually start sowing summer crops from June 1.
This is the time when monsoon rains reach India. The sowing of the crop continues till the beginning of August. A below-normal monsoon may hurt food grain production in the country this year.
Un-seasonal rains in March are also expected to affect the production of rabi crops. Skymet told that 94 percent of the long-period average i.e. LPA can rain.
If the monsoon is 96 percent to 104 percent of the LPA, it is said to have normal rainfall. Similarly, if the rainfall is between 104 percent and 110 percent of the long-period average, it is called excess rainfall.
Similarly, if the rainfall is between 90 and 96 percent, it is said to be below normal. Less than 90 percent rainfall means it is called drought. However, the Indian Meteorological Department i.e. IMA has not yet released the rain forecast.
Skymet Managing Director Jatin Singh said the southwest monsoon has received normal or above normal rainfall for the last four consecutive times due to triple-dip-La Nina however, now La Nina has ended.
The possibility of El Nino increasing during the monsoon is increasing, due to which the rains are likely to be less. According to Skymet, the northern and central regions of the country are most likely to receive deficient rains.
Central region Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra may receive deficient rainfall in the months of July and August. At the same time, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh of North India may receive less than normal rainfall in the second half of the season.