Himachal Pradesh is undergoing a significant demographic transformation, with birth rates declining sharply over the past two decades — from 20.5 to below 12.
In 2005, when the state’s population stood at approximately 65 lakh, around 1.34 lakh births were registered. By 2024, despite the population rising to an estimated 80 lakh, only about 88,000 births were recorded — a drop of nearly 45,000 annual births in just 20 years.
The last time the state recorded fewer than 90,000 births was in 1994, with roughly 82,000 registrations. However, at that time, the population was under 55 lakh.
Births had steadily increased after 1995, peaking at 1.40 lakh in 2006 — the highest ever recorded in the state. Between 2005 and 2010, the annual birth rate remained stable, but after 2010, it started witnessing a steady decline, falling below one lakh in 2018 and dipping under 90,000 in 2024.
The dwindling number of births is now reflected in school enrollments, particularly in government schools.
According to Ashish Kohli, Director of the Directorate of School Education, student numbers in government schools have plummeted from 9.71 lakh in 2002 to just 4.29 lakh. “While many students have shifted to private schools, the declining total fertility rate (TFR) is also a major factor behind this drop,” Kohli explained.
Dr Parkash Chand Daroch, Director of Health Services, noted that Himachal’s TFR has fallen to 1.47, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. “The department cannot dictate family size, but fertility trends require government-level interventions,” he said.
Sanju Karol, Director of Population Research Centre, Shimla, attributed the declining TFR to rising female literacy, delayed marriages and increased contraceptive use.
Professor Narinder Bist from HPU’s Department of Population Studies warned that the falling birth rate would lead to a growing elderly population and a shrinking workforce in the age group of 15-59.
“If the TFR drops further to around 1, the situation could become alarming. For now, it’s manageable, but we must prepare for the consequences,” he said.
A major emerging challenge, according to Dr Bist, will be elderly care. “With fewer children to support aging parents, the demand for caregiver services will surge. The government must start planning for this now,” he emphasised.
