Two casualties have been reported in Mandi district due to rain disaster on Wednesday.

One person was killed at Kuklah and the other at Anah village.

According to the deputy commissioner, flash flood incidents occurred at Kuklah and Anah villages in Mandi, which damaged the residential buildings. Two people were trapped under the debris. Their bodies were retrieved.

The DC said there was information that people were trapped because of flash floods. Forces have been deployed to evacuate the stranded people.

Rains lashed parts of Himachal Pradesh on Tuesday and the meteorological office here issued a red alert predicting heavy to very heavy rainfall with isolated spells of “extremely heavy” rains in eight of its 12 districts during the night.

The warning was issued in the evening for parts of Bilaspur, Hamirpur, Kullu, Mandi, Shimla, Solan, Sirmaur and Una districts as rains on Tuesday triggered some landslides in Mandi and uprooted trees in other areas.

No casualties were reported in this fresh bout of rains. Earlier this month, about 80 people died in rain-related incidents, including major landslides in Shimla.

The Met also issued an orange alert warning of “heavy to very heavy rains” on Wednesday and Thursday, and a yellow warning of heavy rain on August 25 and 26.
It has predicted a wet spell in the state till August 28.

Himachal Pradesh has received six per cent deficit rainfall in August so far. The seasonal rainfall was 752.1 mm against a normal rainfall of 550.4 mm, an excess of 36 per cent.

As many as 227 people have died in rain-related in Himachal while 38 are still missing since the onset of monsoon on June 24. Over 12,000 houses have been completely or partially damaged, according to the state emergency operation centre.

As per its data, the state has suffered losses of about Rs 8,100 crore and the loss estimates are still pouring in. Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu has claimed that the state has suffered losses of Rs 10,000 crores.

With a nearly 50-metre stretch each sinking at two locations in Sanwara on the Chandigarh-Shimla National Highway-5, channelling traffic has become an arduous task for the Himachal police. More so as the lane facing the hill has been lying closed for traffic owing to mounds of debris flowing down the slopes following rain.

A narrow lane is available for motorists and vehicles from one side are permitted to cross at a time. Initially, only one portion of the road had developed cracks near an HPMC juice bar.

The cracks, however, deepened and the road has sunk by a few feet now. Some showrooms, restaurants and hotels, including Hotel AAA, which lie next to the sinking site, have been declared unsafe and vacated by the authorities.

Other structures in the periphery too face the risk of being damaged if the road sinks further as the repair work is yet to begin. Gaping cracks are also visible at another spot on the road.

Policemen have been deputed to ensure the smooth movement of traffic as the highway faces a heavy influx of vehicles carrying essential commodities, tourists, apples and vegetables, besides inter-state and local buses.

Anand Dhaiya, Project Director, NHAI, said the restoration work at sites where the damage was less would begin soon while for more-damaged points such as Chakki Mor, an expert opinion was awaited.

“Temporary restoration measures are underway. The work to clear the debris at various points on the Parwanoo-Solan highway is likely to be completed within two weeks,” said Dhaiya.

The residents, meanwhile, are awaiting permanent restoration of the highway as every spell of rain has been aggravating the situation.
Balwinder Singh, project in-charge of construction firm GR Infraprojects, said, “A tentative plan for restoring the damage has been sent to the NHAI. Once they approve it, the final design will be sent and the work will begin as per their directions.

At least 12 vulnerable sites, including two at Sanwara, have been included where the restoration work is awaiting approval.”

An NDRF team conducted another brave operation on Sunday night at the Kol Dam Hydel Project in Himachal Pradesh’s Mandi district and saved 10 people trapped at the dam following a failure of their boat.

They were stuck in a boat at the dam’s reservoir due to a rise in the water level. It was immediately not known how the incident took place. The victims were around 20 km away inside the water body.

The team left for the site in a steamer of the dam authorities at about 8.40pm on Sunday and reached the victims around 12.15am.

One of the NDRF swimmers took the risk and went to the boat of the victims and anchored it. After ardous efforts he evacuated all 10 victims. The rescue operation got over at 2.30am.

With the night operations always being tough, it was a challenging task. Besides jumping into the dam at night is a risky affair. However, the NDRF team showed bravery to save them.

The officials said five of those stuck at the site were employees of the forest department — Bahadur Singh, Bhupesh Thakur, Roop singh, Babu Ram and Angad Kumar — while the other five were locals, who were identified as Nain Singh, Dagu Ram, Hem Raj, Bhudhi Singh and Dharmendra.

The Met office here has issued an ‘orange alert’ for heavy to very heavy rain in Himachal Pradesh from August 22-24 and ‘yellow alert’ for heavy rain on August 21, even as the monsoon remained subdued in the state.

Isolated parts of the state witnessed light rain on Sunday, it said.

The Met also warned of moderate risk of flash floods in catchment areas of Chamba and Mandi districts and predicted a wet spell till August 26.

Heavy rain can result in landslides, flash floods and increased water levels in rivers and drains, besides causing damage to standing crops, fruit plants and young seedlings, the weather office said.

The Centre on Sunday approved the release of Rs 200 crore from the National Disaster Response Fund as advance assistance to Himachal Pradesh to help the rain-battered state undertake relief measures for affected people.

A spokesperson of the Union Home Ministry said the Centre had earlier approved the advance release of Rs 360.80 crore from the central share of the State Disaster Response Fund in two instalments on July 10 and 17.
The Central government also released Rs 189.27 crore of the state’s past dues from the National Disaster Response Fund (NDRF) on August 7, the spokesperson said.

The home ministry has approved the release of Rs 200 crore, as an advance from the National Disaster Response Fund to the government of Himachal Pradesh to help them undertake relief measures for affected people during the ongoing monsoon season, a spokesperson said.

The central government is monitoring the situation in Himachal Pradesh round the clock and providing necessary logistics and financial help to the state government to deal with the situation efficiently.

Twenty teams of the National Disaster Response Force, nine columns of the Indian Army and three helicopters of the Indian Air Force were deployed in Himachal Pradesh for rescue and relief.

The central government, without waiting for a memorandum from the state government, had also deputed inter-ministerial central teams, to make an on-the-spot assessment of the situation and relief works being carried out by the state government, the spokesperson said.

The central teams visited the affected areas in the state from July 19 to 21.

According to the home ministry data, at least 330 people lost their lives due to rains, floods, landslides and lightning in Himachal Pradesh since the monsoon’s onset in the state.

All 12 districts of Himachal Pradesh were hit by the rains, floods, landslides and cloudbursts this monsoon.

In an alarming revelation, 21 of the 23 hydel projects in HP have been found guilty of non-compliance with the dam safety norms, resulting in thousands of people being forced to leave their homes, inundated after the sudden discharge of water from upstream dams such as Pong.

A related presentation was made by the state Directorate of Energy before Chief Secretary Prabodh Saxena, who has vowed legal action, which may include criminal liability, against violators.

The flooding of low-lying areas in Punjab and Himachal has been attributed to the release of water from the Pong Dam in Kangra, besides Pandoh and Malana dams.

Sources said despite requests by the administration of some districts, the authorities at most of the dams had failed to ensure timely release of excess water. What’s more alarming is that the violators include four government projects — Larji on the Beas in Mandi; Jateon on the Giri in Sirmaur; both operated by the HP State Electricity Board; and Sawra Kuddu on the Pabbar in Shimla; and Sainj on the Sainj (a Beas tributary) in Kullu; both under the HP Power Corporation.

Data showed that only the 800-MW Kol Dam in Bilaspur and the 1,045 MW Karcham Wangtoo project in Kinnaur adhered to the norms laid down in the Dam Safety Act and the guidelines of the Central Water Commission. Besides the 23 operational projects with a total capacity of generating 9,203 MW power, six are under construction, which have a capacity of 1,916 MW.

“We will be initiating legal action against the violators. We are seeking an opinion on holding them accountable for criminal liability,” said Chief Secretary Saxena. He admitted that the “lack of monitoring” by government agencies such as the Directorate of Energy was also to be blamed for the violations.

The dam authorities have been found to be erring with respect to the installation of an early warning system, which must have a provision of a broadcasting tailor-made voice to alert people. The alleged failure by the Larji dam authorities had led to the drowning of 24 students from a Hyderabad engineering college on June 8, 2014.

The Directorate of Energy, meanwhile, has been asked to inspect the dam sites to ensure all projects were getting a risk and vulnerability assessment done through experts.

The northwest region is likely to witness another spell of heavy rain over the next few days with the Meteorological Department issuing an orange alert for flashfloods and landslides in certain parts.

The weatherman said on August 20 and 21, Himachal might witness more landslides and mudslides. The orange alert has been issued for Uttarakhand. The department Rain, landslide alert in HP till tomorrow.

said parts of Himachal and Uttarakhand may experience flashfloods over the next 24 hours. “Very heavy rainfall is likely over parts of Uttarakhand (August 20-23) and Himachal (August 20-21),” the department said.

Punjab, Haryana and Chandigarh were likely to witness light to moderate rain over the next few days, it said.

It is not over yet. The IMD has predicted more rains for the two weather-battered hill states—Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh—in northwest India over the next “three-four days”.

In fact, the weather office on Saturday forecast heavy to very heavy rains till August 22 in several parts of the country, along with heavy falls in east and adjoining central India (August 18-19) and increase in activity over northeast from August 20.

In north, the weather office forecast “light/moderate scattered to fairly widespread rain/thunderstorm and lightning with isolated heavy rain over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand in the next five days, over west Uttar Pradesh till August 22 and over east Uttar Pradesh on August 22 and 23”.

“Isolated very heavy rain is also likely over Uttarakhand till August 23 and over Himachal Pradesh till August 21,” it added.
Basically, heavy rain has been predicted over Western Himalayan Region and adjoining plains from August 20 and an orange alert for very heavy rains issued for Arunachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand for August 21 and 22.

Monsoon trough to move eastward from August 21

Currently, the monsoon trough is running along normal position and passes through Ganganagar, Narnaul, Datia, Satna, the centre of Low Pressure Area over north Chhattisgarh and neighbourhood, Keonjhargarh, Balasore and thence southeastwards to Northeast Bay of Bengal and extends up to 1.5 km above mean sea level.

Its eastern end is expected to shift northwards to the north of its normal position from August 21, the IMD said.

According to experts, the recent spell of heavy rain in the two hill states was caused due to northward movement of the axis of the monsoon trough, making weather conditions favourable for heavy to very heavy rains across the Himalayas which have been facing the brunt of climate-induced change in weather patterns since the beginning of the 2023 monsoon season.

According to experts, weather conditions may have been favourable for heavy rains, but climate change has a definite role in the increasing intensity, causing flash floods and landslides.

In view of the unprecedented damage to life and property, the Himachal Pradesh government has declared the state as a “natural calamity- affected area”.
Double whammy—humidity and temperature

All this when the country is witnessing “break-monsoon conditions”, say experts, however, the climate change has been causing higher temperature and increased humidity.

Its effects on southwest monsoon are becoming evident by every passing year, they add.

Normally during this phase, the axis of the monsoon trough shifts northwards and stays stationed over the Himalayas triggering heavy to very heavy rains over the hilly region. However, the warming atmosphere has increased the intensity of rain tremendously.

Double whammy—humidity and temperature

All this when the country is witnessing “break-monsoon conditions”, say experts, however, the climate change has been causing higher temperature and increased humidity.

Its effects on southwest monsoon are becoming evident by every passing year, they add.

Normally during this phase, the axis of the monsoon trough shifts northwards and stays stationed over the Himalayas triggering heavy to very heavy rains over the hilly region. However, the warming atmosphere has increased the intensity of rain tremendously.
Himalayas if global warming goes unchecked”.

“The warmer it becomes, the more moisture the atmosphere can hold. Higher temperatures lead to more water being evaporated from the earth’s surface. This increases the holding capacity of the air, resulting in more droplets and heavier rain, sometimes in a shorter space of time and over a smaller area.

According to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, the air can generally hold around 7% more moisture for every 1-degree Celsius temperature rise, say experts, adding that humidity is the prime factor behind the increasing likelihood of heavier rains and even more dangerous heat waves.

Changing monsoon patterns and WDs

There has also been a change in the western disturbance (WD) trajectory.

Experts say WDs are more prevalent during winter when they travel in lower latitudes, bringing rain and snow over north India. During the summer, these systems tend to travel in higher latitudes and do not have much impact on the region during the ongoing season. However, active WDs have travelled across the Himalayas during the monsoon season.

According to the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Cycle Report, warming in the Himalayas has increased with altitude.

There has also been a steep rise in land subsidence incidents during the past couple of years.

The experts say the Himalayan range, particularly the one in Uttarakhand, is very sensitive to extreme rainfall events, given the nature of the mountains.

The latest spell of heavy rain in Himachal Pradesh and Uttrakhand, which killed many people and caused a huge loss of property, was caused due to northward movement of the axis of the monsoon trough-driven weather conditions. These conditions that led to heavy to very heavy rain across the Himalayan region.

Though weather conditions must have been favourable for heavy rain there, the ‘climate change’ has a definite role in the increasing intensity of weather activities, say the climatologists.

Experts said the atmosphere, land and oceans are warming at a faster rate owing to the climate change. “The warmer it becomes, the more moisture the atmosphere can hold.

This has led to more water being evaporated from the earth’s surface. This increases the holding capacity of the air, which results in more droplets and heavier rain, sometimes in a shorter space of time and over a smaller area,” said experts.

Experts added that there had been an increase in the average relative humidity across India because of the rapid rise in land and sea temperatures. Experts said humidity was the prime factor behind the increasing likelihood of heavier rain and even more dangerous heat waves.

Experts said both humidity and temperature were the twin pillars of climate change.

“Monsoon rainfall patterns over India have seen a climatic shift in the recent decades. The most significant change is that instead of having moderate rains, spread out through the monsoon season, we have long dry periods intermittently with short spells of heavy rain.

We saw this pattern manifesting during the current year also. Even though the all-India average rainfall is near normal, the regional rainfall during the season has had deficits and floods.

The pace of global warming has now accelerated, and we need urgent action as these extreme conditions will intensify in the near future,” said Dr Roxy Mathew Koll, senior scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune.

“The tragic loss of lives and devastation, caused by the recent landslides and flash floods in Himachal Pradesh, serves as a stark reminder of the intensifying impact of climate change on vulnerable regions.

As climate change accelerates, the frequency and severity of such natural disasters are rising. The heavy rains that have besieged Himachal Pradesh over the last few weeks are consistent with the patterns expected in a warming world.

Increased temperatures can lead to more intense rainfall events, escalating the risk of landslides and flash floods. The vulnerability of hillside communities and the crumbling of essential infrastructure further magnifies the tragedy.

Immediate action is imperative,” said Anjal Prakash, Clinical Associate Professor (Research) and Research Director, at Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business.

In a surprise move, the Himachal Pradesh Government today declared the entire state as “National Calamity Affected Area” in view of the unprecedented situation leading to loss of lives, public infrastructure and private property.

Centre yet to take call

Such a decision is normally taken by the Centre, but the notification in this regard was issued by Principal Secretary (Revenue) Onkar Sharma on friday.

The move is being viewed as part of public posturing by the Congress regime to show that the Centre has desisted from declaring it a natural कालमित्य

Normally, this kind of a decision is taken by the Centre, but the notification in this regard was issued today by Onkar Sharma, Principal Secretary (Revenue).

At least JP Nadda ji was gracious enough to enquire about the damage caused by heavy rain but the state BJP leadership is only busy scoring brownie points for political mileage. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah have also enquired about the situation in the state.

As such, it is being viewed as part of public posturing by the Congress regime to show indirectly that despite the enormity of the disaster, the BJP-led Modi regime has desisted from declaring it a natural calamity, which could have paved the way for liberal funding and assistance to Himachal Pradesh in this hour of need.

Questioning the Centre over not declaring the natural disaster in Himachal as national calamity, Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu said the state government would do it at its own level.

Gehlot, Baghel announce relief

Rs 15 crore Sanctioned by Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot for Himachal Pradesh to contribute in relief work. A statement from the Gehlot’s office said the money had been set aside in the wake of unprecedented weather induced devastation in Himachal

Rs 11 crore announced as financial assistance to Himachal by Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel. Baghel spoke to CM Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu on the phone on Thursday and assured to extend support to deal with the crisis situation

The order says that after the weather becomes normal and accessibility improves, the assessment of damage will be undertaken by all districts and departments.

The assessment report will then be submitted to the government for recovery and reconstruction efforts. Though the order is silent on the role of Centre in terms of extending help or not declaring heavy rain as national calamity,

but it highlights at length the efforts of the state government in providing necessary assistance for relief, rescue and rehabilitation across the state to restore normalcy in the state and mitigate the suffering of the people.

The order, however, mentions that thousands of tourists and locals were rescued with the help of Air Force, Army, NDRF, SDRF, police Home Guards, fire services personnel and local volunteers.